Monday 19 April 2010

Brown must come out fighting in the second leaders debate

The leaders debates are really dictating the whole campaign. This is something that few expected. After Clegg mania everyone is wating to see how he deals with forign affairs. Cameron and certainly Brown cannot ignore him as this will let him repeat the same trick again. The issues will dictate tactics. the following qustions could well be key

Iraq: Clegg and Cameron attack Brown. Brown responds attacking cameron for supporting the war and Clegg for Calling for troops to be brouight home too early. Result Brown takes a pounding.
Afganistan: Clegg wnats to bring troops home Brown to counter that this will leave Britain open to attack from Bin Laden. Cameron to run with lack of helicopters Brown to state there are more helicopters than ever. Brown takes another pounding as all minds are already made up.
Europe: Cameron attacks Clegg over the Euro, Brown joins in. Cameron attacks Brown over referendem. Brown fights back stating Cameron should decide if he wants to be in or out of Europe. Possible Cameron winn
The special relationship: All back it, Bore draw.
The enviorment: They all will try to outbid each other easiy for Clegg and Cameron to promise the world. Brown to roll out stats but not easy to make an impact. Clegg winn
Africa: Brown has put a lot in here but again Clegg and Cameron promise the world. Draw
World Trade: Brown to spout policy and stats, Clegg and Cameron to agree. Draw
So over all another hard one for Brown. You begin to wonder who negotiated the rules on Labours behalf as its hard to defend very basic questions when you have been power for 13 years. Brown's only chance is to attack first to try to set the tone of the debate. Tough choices when in power etc and rip into Clegg and Cameron on spicific polices like a boxer down on points with two rounds to go he needs to get some clear shots in. Clegg to drop in Polls slightly Brown may rise Cameron may also firm up leaving it all on the last debate and Cleggs weak point the economy.

Sunday 18 April 2010

Gordon Brown moves through on the inside

I should now be fixing the the toilet seat but instead I am writing my first ever Blog. Fixing the toilet seat will definitely be of more benefit to society as a whole but with this being the online election I thought I would throw in a few thoughts (I should also be out delivering the first drop of direct mail for my MP but that crucial boost to his campaign has again been put off until tomorrow). Clegg mania has given the election a much needed boost. The media commentators in concentrating on the Lib Dem bandwagon have missed the fact that in my view Gordon Brown was the real winner of the first leaders debate. Like the fabled tortoise slowly plodding past on the inside rail while the other two tussle over the mantle of leading candidate for change. The result in the polls has the Lib Dems in the mix but crucially the difference between Labour and the Tories has now narrowed to 4-6 points. If this is replicated in the key seats it really will be game on with labour in a position to possibly win the election which is something that seemed very unlikely even as recently as last Wednesday when polling showed David Cameron with a 12 point lead in the marginals. Talk about a week being a long time in politics a few days now seems like a life time.